Drought Conditions Expand; Scattered Storm Chances Return; Temperatures Below Average for a Change

This week's drought monitor revealed some not so good news concerning our drought situation in North Texas. Nearly every single county in North TX is now included in "moderate drought" status for the exception of far northern portions of North Texas along the Highway 82 corridor. Severe drought now covers Dallas, Fort Worth, and areas along the I-20 corridor into East Texas and areas near Waco/McLennan counties. Drying vegetation poses a threat of wildfires, especially on days with breezy conditions and extremely high temperatures. Several counties in North TX are under a burn ban which prohibits outdoor burning until the ban is lifted.

Conditions over the next few days may not help to eradicate the drought, but it should at least deteriorate at a slower rate with increased amounts of clouds, scattered storms, and slightly lower temperatures. Starting Friday, there should be a noticeable increase in the coverage of showers and storms as a weakening cold front moves in from the northeast. This front is moving in from the northeast around a ridge of high pressure aloft centered in the Rocky Mountains. I do not expect a major drop in temperatures from the front since it will be slowly losing its identity as it washes out in our area over the next few days, but temperatures will be a few degrees cooler compared to the last few days as a result of more clouds and scattered storms.

On Friday, all of North TX will see a 30-40% chance of scattered afternoon storms. With the lack of a focused frontal boundary and a moist and buoyant airmass, it is nearly impossible to predict exactly where and when a storm will occur. These will simply be random, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The peak timeframe for any activity will be between 11AM-7PM. On Saturday, more scattered shower and storms will develop mainly during the afternoon hours, but the greatest concentration storms will generally be along and south of the I-20 corridor as drier air attempts to filter in from the northeast. Since the upper level ridge will not be directly parked over the region, isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms will continue through early next week, at least through Tuesday. High temperatures will max out in the low to mid 90s each day with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Highs less than 95 degrees this time of year are actually considered below normal.

By the end of next week, scattered storm chances will diminish and high temperatures will return back to the upper 90s.